You believe that this caliphate would be established in Saudi Arabia. My immediate thought would be that for the Salafi to establish themselves anywhere would be a waste of time. If the coup in Saudi Arabia were successful, its more than safe to assume that there would be 100,000 Americans on the ground there within a year, even with the predicted internal turmoil. Racial riots would tie up national guard units, maybe even some active duty soldiers, but I think the American military response to Al Qaeda taking over a country would be overwhelming. And, for the cynics, the first things we would probably secure would be oil derricks, refineries and ports.

Until the Salafi jihad can present an armored front with necessary logistical and air support, I can’t see them as being able to hold any ground. Yes, they can blow us up. Yes, they threaten our national security. But really, who owns Iraq and Afghanistan right now? The Iraqi government and the US, and the Afghani government and US. The insurgents complicate the issue politically, but in military terms the good guys are in control. They absolutely could topple the Saudi government, but they can’t hold the country, even with the support of the disgruntled populace.