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RE: Vaccines didn't cause GWS (or autism, or ___, or ...)

Comment a comment by Brandon U. Hansen (Brandon), published on 21 November 2009
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Thanks for the graphs. Here are a couple of observations/questions.

Looking at the measles graph, there was a drop from over 750,000 cases in 1957 to about 400,000 cases in 1958. How did that (a near 50% decrease in one year) happen without the vaccine? The other plots provide many other such instances. And what about the other graphs that show no improvement for years after the vaccination license date (e.g., Meningococcal Disease)? Why so many anomalies if only vaccines have the ability to significantly change things?

And why is correlation being presented here? Why aren’t we looking at studies demonstrating causation? You know, real science stuff.

There is so much information not given. I’d like to see the graphs cover back as far as they have data. I’d also like to know more than just the license date. When did it start being widely given? How do the number of administrations in a population relate to occurrences, controlling for other factors (e.g., improvements in sanitation)?

And finally, if we’re going to jump on-board without question based on these simplistic correlation plots, why wouldn’t we do the same thing in reaction to the vaccinations-vs-autism/ADHD stats? (I’m not saying I’m jumping on either bandwagon. I just think it’s odd everyone is so quick to trust one correlation but not another.)

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RE: Vaccines didn't cause GWS (or autism, or ___, or ...) by scottb :: NR7

The main thing those graphs lack is plotting vaccination rates along side incidence rates, which would, I think clarify most of the questions you ask.

And why is correlation being presented here? Why aren’t we looking at studies demonstrating causation? You know, real science stuff.

Almost no medical study demonstrates causation. They hypothesize a causation and then show correlates that support or refute the hypothesis.

And finally, if we’re going to jump on-board without question based on these simplistic correlation plots, why wouldn’t we do the same thing in reaction to the vaccinations-vs-autism/ADHD stats?

Because the autism stats don’t show anything like the vaccination stats do. There has been a recent increase in the reported cases of autism, yes. But the criteria defining autism have broadened, and far more routine screening is done, and those account for the overwhelming majority of the observed variation.

Posted 21 November 2009, Hide, Parent, Reply

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