0 Nerd-Its - +

RE: Vaccines didn't cause GWS (or autism, or ___, or ...)

Comment a comment by scottb, published on 20 November 2009
Navigate to the top level to view all replies to the article Is the Door Closed on Squalene and Gulf War Syndrome?
Navigate up one level to see this comment's parent.
other nerds have left 14 comments below

or someone telling me disease rates have fallen so that must be caused by vaccines.

Hm. Well, I’m going to tell you pretty close to exactly that…

The measles vaccine was licensed for use in 1963. Prior to that, there were about half a million reported cases of measles each year. By 1968, it had dropped to fewer than 50,000 per year — a 90% reduction. No way you can reasonably attribute that to changes in diet, environment, or behavior.

As vaccination rates climbed, largely due to school programs requiring evidence of vaccination before allowing children to attend, measles rates dropped even further. In the 90s, there were fewer than 100 cases reported most years.

A 10% drop you could attribute to an environmental or behavioral change, but the drastic changes that came about after the introduction of vaccines for many diseases is simply not assignable to any other reasonable cause. Here are some graphs that nicely show the data.

Thread parent sort order:
Thread verbosity:
0 Nerd-Its - +
RE: Vaccines didn't cause GWS (or autism, or ___, or ...) by Brandon :: NR9

Thanks for the graphs. Here are a couple of observations/questions.

Looking at the measles graph, there was a drop from over 750,000 cases in 1957 to about 400,000 cases in 1958. How did that (a near 50% decrease in one year) happen without the vaccine? The other plots provide many other such instances. And what about the other graphs that show no improvement for years after the vaccination license date (e.g., Meningococcal Disease)? Why so many anomalies if only vaccines have the ability to significantly change things?

And why is correlation being presented here? Why aren’t we looking at studies demonstrating causation? You know, real science stuff.

There is so much information not given. I’d like to see the graphs cover back as far as they have data. I’d also like to know more than just the license date. When did it start being widely given? How do the number of administrations in a population relate to occurrences, controlling for other factors (e.g., improvements in sanitation)?

And finally, if we’re going to jump on-board without question based on these simplistic correlation plots, why wouldn’t we do the same thing in reaction to the vaccinations-vs-autism/ADHD stats? (I’m not saying I’m jumping on either bandwagon. I just think it’s odd everyone is so quick to trust one correlation but not another.)

Posted 21 November 2009, Hide, Parent, Reply

The Showcase

Nerd-Its   Nerd Trends   Last Ten  

  1. RE: Actually... in Scientology: We've had it with you
  2. Actions speak louder than words... in Scientology: We've had it with you
  3. Actually... in Scientology: We've had it with you
  4. Scientology - a trap you don't want to walk into in Scientology: We've had it with you
  5. RE: Dawkins' (Scottb's) Unanswered Questions in God before Country in the Military
  6. RE: Still true? in God before Country in the Military
  7. RE: The Pots should stop calling the Kettles black... in God before Country in the Military
  8. RE: The Pots should stop calling the Kettles black... in God before Country in the Military
  9. RE: Dawkins' (Scottb's) Unanswered Questions in God before Country in the Military
  10. RE: Dawkins' (Scottb's) Unanswered Questions in God before Country in the Military

What is OmniNerd?

Omninerd_icon Welcome! OmniNerd's content is generated by nerds like you. Learn more.

Voting Booth

Winter Olympic sports?

View Results, All Polls
17 votes, 9 comments