What military force is the UN going to use against Iran, seriously? Economic sanctions and embargos would only work if all countries jumped on board, so what if the US won’t ship electronics to them. Im sure North Korea is not going to stop missile shipments. And what about Russian arms sales to Iran? In 2002 the Russians were accused of exporting arms to Iran which could have exceeded 400 million dollars. To already economically depressed countries, like Russia, stopping trade to a country with good cash flow, like Iran, will seem ludicrous.
I have a hard time believing that the UN with all its omni-potent powers would have any success enforcing trade embargos against Iran, and military action lies in the realm of the impossible.
Economics will once again save the day.
My hope is that our current oil crisis, made all the more unbearable by the destruction in the New Orleans area, will force an eco friendly solution. Assuming that prices remain at 3$+ I anticipate that the demand for fuel efficient vehicles will cause a dramatic rise in the private sector research that goes into items such as the smart car
or the hybrid cars. This, I think, will reduce the demand for oil to levels that can be handled by domestic production.
When America is once again able to live off domestic production, I’m not sure there will be a reason to deal politically with the Middle East at all. They can have all of the nuclear weapons they want, and they can be as angry as they want about which of the original Imams were legitimate and which ones weren’t and who believes that the Drunken Sufis were divinely inspired and who doesn’t. The money that previously went into military spending for the Middle East can go into a strategic defense initiative to intercept ICBMs. Further, I believe that North Korea will resolve itself in the next 20 years when Kim Jong Il invetiably succumbs to death and regime change reveals the North Koreans really just want to eat.
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