What is OmniNerd?

Welcome! OmniNerd's content is generated by you, the reader. Through voting and moderation we strive to highlight the nerdiest of what's around and provide content that's a little more thought provoking than other sites.

Submit New Content

Voting Booth

I am most afraid of dying?

View Results, All Polls
72 votes, 11 comments
5
Nerd-Its
+ -

RE: Where's the analysis?

Comment comment by Anonymous on 01 November 2007

I did do some analysis. Compensating for the four (ouch) different types, I get an overall p-value of 0.792. This means there is absolutely NO statistical significance...

You can test it yourself if you have R:

#Get big.dat at http://www.state.nj.us/lottery/data/big.dat
big=read.table("big.dat",sep="%",fill=T)
big$date=as.Date(apply(big[,1:3],1,paste,collapse="-"))
big$type=ifelse(big$date>"1999-1-13",ifelse(big$date>"2002-3-15",ifelse(big$date>"2005-06-22",4,3),2),1)
big$maxnorm=c(50,50,52,56)[big$type]
big$maxspecial=c(25,35,52,46)[big$type]
maxnorms=table(big$maxnorm)
p=rep(0,56)
for(i in 1:nrow(maxnorms))
p[1:as.numeric(names(maxnorms)[i])]=p[1:as.numeric(names(maxnorms)[i])]+maxnorms[i]*5
maxspecial=table(big$maxspecial)
for(i in 1:nrow(maxspecial))
p[1:as.numeric(names(maxspecial)[i])]=p[1:as.numeric(names(maxspecial)[i])]+maxspecial[i]
p=prop.table(p)
allnum=unlist(big[,5:10])
t=table(allnum)
chisq.test(t,p=p)
plot(t/p)

P

You are a viewing a subset of a larger discussion.
View Full Discussion
Star This to Save in Your Profile Favorite
Thread parent sort order:
Highest Voted : Lowest Voted : Oldest : Newest
Thread verbosity:
Expand All : Minimize Replies to Comments
2 Nerd-Its - +
RE: Where's the analysis? by VnutZ :: NR8

I don't suppose you could run that one last time - just restrict the data set to everything newer than June 25, 2005 (I think). That would be version 4, the current game, of MegaMillions.

I'll be the first to admit - statistics was the first math class I actually bombed ... only got a B- and that was years ago. So there are undoubtedly things I did in this analysis that would make a statistician cringe. I'm hoping more that the aggregation of all the different tables will result in something mildly more meaningful that straight random.

Posted 01 November 2007, Hide, Parent, Reply
2 Nerd-Its - +
RE: Where's the analysis? by Anonymous :: NR0

What I was looking for in my previous post was, the order and time the numbers were drawn. I wanted to use the analysis calculated by the earth's rotation including leap year minutes (x=(525,600*.25)+525,600) to see if there is indeed an prediction that can be achieved based on moments of time.

I know it is a bit much but I do not believe in randomnimity. I believe the word random was invented to fill in an explaination of things that happen on time intervals that we cannot explain. Thus my ultimate theory is that a number drawn can be predicted at the exact second, the trick is, finding the right calculation. Who knows if the Julian calendar is even the right approach?

I know it is out there and probably deemed cooky, but what if?

-IVX

Posted 02 November 2007, Hide, Parent, Reply