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Stock Bounce (AAPL, RIMM, PALM)

Comment comment by tomtolman on 10 January 2007

It's interesting to note how the stock market reacted to the iPhone news. Apple (AAPL) is up 8.31% on the day while BlackBerry (RIMM) is down 7.85% and Palm (PALM) is down 5.69%. Do you think this is a temporary bounce or will this increase when the phone is launched in June?

I did not expect the phone to be a PDA replacement. The iPod has been so successful based on their simplicity that I expected more of the same. I would like to see a bare bones iPhone without all the PDA features. Do you think that is coming?

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RE: Stock Bounce (AAPL, RIMM, PALM) by jmarkdavison :: NR6

That stock bounce yesterday was insane. A product everybody knew was coming is announced and we see an 8% jump? Proof that there is still plenty of irrational exuberance to go around- I thought post-bubble irrational exuberance was confined to Google but I guess it has spread over to AAPL as well.

I have thought about shorting Apple. The phone/PDA market is far more mature than the mp3 player market back when the iPod came about. Anytime Wall Street starts to think someone has the Midas touch, like Steve Jobs, the expectations are so high and already built into the stock price. Once the luster wears off, disappointment sets in and it becomes "just another company." Apple has had a good run, Lord knows, but I think this is the peak.

Of course, many people have lost out by underestimating Apple. So I think the stock jump is unjustified, but I don't have the stones or the cash to put my money where my mouth is.

I wrote the above without checking the markets today- now I will. RIMM bounced back 2%, AAPL is up another 1%, and PALM is treading water.

Posted 10 January 2007, Hide, Parent, Reply
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iPhone Nano by tomtolman :: NR5

I did not expect the phone to be a PDA replacement. The iPod has been so successful based on their simplicity that I expected more of the same. I would like to see a bare bones iPhone without all the PDA features. Do you think that is coming?

It looks like CrunchGear just answered my question. From their iPhone FAQ:

Will there be other iPhones?

Probably. Think in terms of Nano vs. Video vs. Shuffle. It will happen.

Posted 11 January 2007, Hide, Parent, Reply