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The GOP Candidacy Race

Cup blog (coffee shop) by Brandon on 16 January 2008, tagged as politics, gop, and 2008 presidential election

Unless you believe only the first announcement from Michigan Republican Party officials in Michigan, Mitt Romney won the fourth state caucus/primary. Although it was his second win, the Wyoming primary was overshadowed by the Huckabee victory in Iowa and the McCain victory in New Hampshire.

With Nevada and South Carolina looming, Guiliani waits in Florida (although some describe his campaign as "imploding"). Huckabee is at home in the South and has promised a resurgence. McCain has set up a "Truth Squad" to defend him against negative campaigning. Romney is continuing his Michigan theme of the economy.

Who will take home the GOP nomination?

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McCain ... although I'm not sure why by Brandon :: NR9 :: on 17 January 2008

I must admit I think McCain will get the nomination - unless Romney can pull an upset. I think many of those who voted for Huckabee in Iowa were simply voting against Romney. Romney had campaigned hard in the state (unlike McCain, who was concentrating on NH) and those who didn't like Romney for one reason or another (I'm thinking of one in particular) went to the next likely strong-IA-campaigning candidate. Now that McCain has re-achieved legitimacy by winning NH and having a strong showing in Michigan, I think the "no Romney" voters have a better alternative.

It's still possible Romney will win Nevada and do decently in SC (top three). If he can pull that off and then beat McCain in Florida (no matter where they are positioned in the overall standings), then I think he can stay in it.

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RE: McCain ... although I'm not sure why by Anonymous :: NR0 :: on 19 January 2008

Not so decent in SC, huh?

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RE: McCain ... although I'm not sure why by Brandon :: NR9 :: on 19 January 2008

Yeah - about 3,000 votes or so from meeting my criteria.

I guess this means Thompson will stay in the race ... I'm not sure what it means for Romney.

I still think McCain's headed towards the nomination ... and I'm still not sure why, because I think he has about a 0.4% chance of becoming President.